February 21, 2014
Forecasting innovation success and the O(ther) Information
I came across a recent article of professor
“It’s easy to blame the market research firm for this, but this is not our point. We are trying to explain the inherent difficulties in assessing consumers’ reaction in this new era. First, more decisions today are impacted by what we call O sources of information—“Other” information sources, such as user reviews, friend and expert opinions, price comparison tools, and emerging technologies or sources—whereas market research measures P sources—“Prior” preferences, beliefs and experiences”.
The O sources are therefore a factor bringing instability and disrupts a well-grounded method of producing information needing in decision making namely the traditional market research.
What now? All hope is gone? I wouldn't say that, it is simply a question of adopting a new thinking and approaches to the marketing research issue. Together with my colleagues in the University of Twente and other colleagues abroad we are for some time now brainstorming on this specific issue: What is the way to create or predict successful innovations today. We set out to searching for other sources of customer information and sources of behavioral clues that can provide much better input for predictions and guidelines for innovation than the traditional market research. You can guess that we consider the social media as a major source of such information but this is not the only source we look to. Since this discussion and our research design is still in progress I will not expand on this at the moment but I will keep you informed as our research progresses.